Peak Oil

[truelies]

Briefly described the concept of Peak Oil is a more more less conventional wisdom idea that -

1) Oil is a finite nonrenewable resource that has its origins in the remains of lifeforms dead and buried millions of years in the past.

2) The Oil Peak is very near at hand 2005 - 2020 with a fairly rapid decline in worldwide oil output thereafter which will have unavoidably devastating consequences for humanity.

Here are a couple of LINKS to contrasting viewpoints on this question.

http://peakoil.blogspot.com/

This site is pretty much of the position that the world is ending from a Leftwing slant.

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html

This site has some interesting contrasting arguements in regard to the science of oil formation, BUT.........there is a large dose of anti-zionism and conspiracy theory in the mix.

Opinions?

[Satan]

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html

This site has some interesting contrasting arguements in regard to the science of oil formation, BUT.........there is a large dose of anti-zionism and conspiracy theory in the mix.

Opinions?

Notwithstanding the fact that my EYES ARE BLEEDING after trying to read all that black print against that HORRID gray background...

This is fascinating. Granted, I haven't done a whole lot of research on the subject, but I find it incredible (well, actually I don't) that we haven't heard much more about abiotic petroleum studies. Like most people, I've been told since grade school that 'oil comes from dinosaurs', and I suppose that since I accepted it at such an early age as conventional wisdom, I've never really thought to ask:

How could dinosaurs have possibly created the planet's vast oil fields? Did millions, or even billions, of them die at the very same time and at the very same place? Were there dinosaur Jonestowns on a grand scale occurring at locations all across the planet? And how did they all get buried so quickly? Because if they weren't buried right away, wouldn't they have just decomposed and/or been consumed by scavengers? And how much oil can you really squeeze from a pile of parched dinosaur skeletons?

Maybe there was some type of cataclysmic event that caused the sudden extinction of the dinosaurs and also buried them -- like the impact of an asteroid or a comet. But even so, you wouldn't think that all the dinosaurs would have been huddled together waiting to become oil fields.

It does sound rather preposterous, doesn't it?

As far as 'conspiracy theories', I wouldn't put anything past the petroleum industries. It's a proven fact that the market is jacked around artificially all the time. I can't imagine them coming out and saying:

"Hey, everybody ... uhhh ... you know how we always talked about oil being a fossil fuel? And ... uhmm ... you know how the entire profit structure of our little industry here is built upon the presumption that oil is a non-renewable, and therefore very valuable, resource*? And remember all those times we talked about shortages so that we could gouge you at the pumps? Well ... guess what, America? You've been Punk'd!"

::) ::)

[Tiger]

Oil will run out. It is that simple. When? Who knows? We still have vast untapped regions in the world - but our safest (for all who inhabit the Earth) is to focus on a new, and optimally, renewable source of energy.

I still say the Ethanol aspect is promising, even if we need to develop cheaper methods of producing it. Much of the gas at the pumps these days are Ethanol mixes.

Fossil fuels present another problem. The weight and consitency of crude oil is much different from that of water.

We are pumping billions upon billions of barrels from under the Earth's surface. What replaces that? Water, mostly. On a small scale - it is likely nothing to worry about - but on a vast World-wide scale, after decades of 'harvesting' the crude - will it have a negative effect on the balance of the geological integrity?

I think so.

Crude oil is nice. Has bennefitted us well.

It's time to move forward now.

[Tiger]

As a kid who grew up around the oil and coal industry - I can tell you - oil is NOT renewable. We (the industry) has pumped out numerous wells.

They're dry folks. No more left in them. Miles of entire fields no longer produce.

That's a fact, like it or not.

[ModusPonens]

Oil will run out. It is that simple.

Is it really that simple? Where is your evidence? Or must I take you simply at your word (again)?

When? Who knows? We still have vast untapped regions in the world - but our safest (for all who inhabit the Earth) is to focus on a new, and optimally, renewable source of energy.

I'm certain that if you will pony up the money, then BP, Checron, Shell, and the rest will be happy to do the research to find something else.

I still say the Ethanol aspect is promising, even if we need to develop cheaper methods of producing it. Much of the gas at the pumps these days are Ethanol mixes.

No, in fact, it is not. Ethanol is horribly corrosive to rubber gaskets and so forth.

How many acres of corn needs to be grown in order to produce 1 gallon of 198 proof ethanol? How much diesel does a tractor consume per acre? How much axle grease does a typical harvester go through in a season? How much petroleum does it take to make a single tire for a harvester?

Fossil fuels present another problem. The weight and consitency of crude oil is much different from that of water.

We are pumping billions upon billions of barrels from under the Earth's surface. What replaces that? Water, mostly. On a small scale - it is likely nothing to worry about - but on a vast World-wide scale, after decades of 'harvesting' the crude - will it have a negative effect on the balance of the geological integrity?

If we were to pour every last ounce of oil that we've ever gotten out of the ground and put it into one place, it would fill about 1/5 the volume of Lake Tahoe.

Crude oil is nice. Has bennefitted us well.

It's time to move forward now.


Tiger has spoken. So it is written, so let it be done. :rolleyes:

[kathleen]

Is it really that simple? Where is your evidence? Or must I take you simply at your word (again)?

Are you suggesting that a natural resource like oil can be infinite? That there is some magical oil reserve that automatical replenishes itself over and over again indefinitely?

[arod]

Are you suggesting that a natural resource like oil can be infinite? That there is some magical oil reserve that automatical replenishes itself over and over again indefinitely?

I doubt he is saying that. The fact is, however, that we don't know what the production mechanism is. As Sky said, we only know what the theories are.

[ModusPonens]

Are you suggesting that a natural resource like oil can be infinite? That there is some magical oil reserve that automatical replenishes itself over and over again indefinitely?

And the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy rears its ugly head.

I didn't say that the supply is infinite, I asserted that the link to petroleum formation from decaying organic matter is not borne out by any scientific evidence.

The fact is that nobody "knows" how oil is formed. I do happen to know just a little something about synthesizing alkanes, alkenes, and alkynes, and it doesn't have anything to do with dinosaurs or any other prehistoric life.

[Satan]

Are you suggesting that a natural resource like oil can be infinite? That there is some magical oil reserve that automatical replenishes itself over and over again indefinitely?


There might be. ;)

HOUSTON -- Something mysterious is going on at Eugene Island 330.

Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while, it behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island 330's output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day.

Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years ago.

All of which has led some scientists to a radical theory: Eugene Island is rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some continuous source miles below the Earth's surface. That, they say, raises the tantalizing possibility that oil may not be the limited resource it is assumed to be.

"It kind of blew me away," says Jean Whelan, a geochemist and senior researcher from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Connected to Woods Hole since 1973, Dr. Whelan says she considered herself a traditional thinker until she encountered the phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Now, she says, "I believe there is a huge system of oil just migrating" deep underground.

Conventional wisdom says the world's supply of oil is finite, and that it was deposited in horizontal reservoirs near the surface in a process that took millions of years. Since the economies of entire countries ride on the fundamental notion that oil reserves are exhaustible, any contrary evidence "would change the way people see the game, turn the world view upside down," says Daniel Yergin, a petroleum futurist and industry consultant in Cambridge, Mass. "Oil and renewable resource are not words that often appear in the same sentence."

Doomsayers to the contrary, the world contains far more recoverable oil than was believed even 20 years ago. Between 1976 and 1996, estimated global oil reserves grew 72%, to 1.04 trillion barrels. Much of that growth came in the past 10 years, with the introduction of computers to the oil patch, which made drilling for oil more predictable.

Still, most geologists are hard-pressed to explain why the world's greatest oil pool, the Middle East, has more than doubled its reserves in the past 20 years, despite half a century of intense exploitation and relatively few new discoveries. It would take a pretty big pile of dead dinosaurs and prehistoric plants to account for the estimated 660 billion barrels of oil in the region, notes Norman Hyne, a professor at the University of Tulsa in Oklahoma. "Off-the-wall theories often turn out to be right," he says.

Even some of the most staid U.S. oil companies find the Eugene Island discoveries intriguing. "These reservoirs are refilling with oil," acknowledges David Sibley, a Chevron Corp. geologist who has monitored the work at Eugene Island.

Mr. Sibley cautions, however, that much research remains to be done on the source of that oil. "At this point, it's not black and white. It's gray," he says.

http://www.oralchelation.com/faq/wsj4.htm

[LanceALott]

Like most people, I've been told since grade school that 'oil comes from dinosaurs',

And that is right!

Dinosaurs ate the plants in the jungle and pissed oil.



But Bush did not fund the dino stem cell research, and all the dinosaurs died; so no more piss.

[LanceALott]

Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million.


My bet is there was a natural water flood of the oil-bearing formation.

Under the oil (oil floats on water you know) was most likely a water layer, a layer which is somehow being fed by a replenishable water source, ocean, fresh water aquifer, etc. -- So the oil that would have been out of the natural flow to the wells has been washed to those wells.

Old worn out fields are frequently regenerated by pumping water down the abandon wells for a water flood.



An interesting fact is a lot of the oil, maybe 90% cannot be gotten out of the sand even with a water flood; but remains attached to the sand. -- The old oil field I once owned part of is very close to the surface, one well was only 90 feet deep, some as deep as 150 feet. -- My old boss and I used to dream of strip mining the overburden and bring out that oil sand in trucks, then heat it in a retort, which would recover damn near a billion dollars worth of oil we knew would be left after the pumps, and the water flood, had quit.

The field is still there, and so is that billion dollars worth of oil for some enterprising young capitalist.

[ModusPonens]

My bet is there was a natural water flood of the oil-bearing formation.

Under the oil (oil floats on water you know) was most likely a water layer, a layer which is somehow being fed by a replenishable water source, ocean, fresh water aquifer, etc. -- So the oil that would have been out of the natural flow to the wells has been washed to those wells.

Old worn out fields are frequently regenerated by pumping water down the abandon wells for a water flood.



An interesting fact is a lot of the oil, maybe 90% cannot be gotten out of the sand even with a water flood; but remains attached to the sand. -- The old oil field I once owned part of is very close to the surface, one well was only 90 feet deep, some as deep as 150 feet. -- My old boss and I used to dream of strip mining the overburden and bring out that oil sand in trucks, then heat it in a retort, which would recover damn near a billion dollars worth of oil we knew would be left after the pumps, and the water flood, had quit.

The field is still there, and so is that billion dollars worth of oil for some enterprising young capitalist.


There's an oil field in the Rockies (Montana/Wyoming/Utah) that's supposed to have more crude than the entire ME. Unfortunately, the oil is embedded in shale, and we don't have an economical way to extract it. If I were 20 again, I'd change my major to chemistry/chemical engineering.

[LanceALott]

There's an oil field in the Rockies (Montana/Wyoming/Utah) that's supposed to have more crude than the entire ME. Unfortunately, the oil is embedded in shale, and we don't have an economical way to extract it. If I were 20 again, I'd change my major to chemistry/chemical engineering.



It's called the Overthrust Belt, and it contains as much oil as Saudi Arabia.

The problem is it is very deep and under the edge of the Rockey Mountains. As the mountains have grown over the years, the rock formations have tilted and rolled over each other forming what is called an overthrust formation.

As you drill through the various layers of rock, an interesting thing happens. It is simmilar to a light bean that is shined through various transparent layers of glass, plastic, water, whatever. At the surface between two different layers the light bean is bent, and goes out in a different direction.

As the drill goes through differenct layers, the direction it is drilling also changes, just like the light beam.

By the time you get way deep where the oil is, your hole is like a corkscrew; and most of the time you simply cannot pull the drill pipe out of it. So for every ten very expensive holes you drill, you might get one that produces oil.

Someday, technology will figure out a profitible way to get that oil, I bet. -- But then at $54 a barrel oil, it might be profitible now.

[Larry_Oldtimer]

It is not all that difficult to make oil (the same as fine crude) from any vegatation. A carbohydrate is only a hydrocarbon with an added water molecule. Remove the water molecule from typical carbohydrates with heat and vibration, and viola, crude oil. This was demonstrated in 1941, and was reported in a 1941 issue of Life Magazine. Geez, it is a matter of developement, and that will be put off until high oil prices are a sure thing, and not subject to manipulation by governments.

[ModusPonens]

It is not all that difficult to make oil (the same as fine crude) from any vegatation. A carbohydrate is only a hydrocarbon with an added water molecule. Remove the water molecule from typical carbohydrates with heat and vibration, and viola, crude oil. This was demonstrated in 1941, and was reported in a 1941 issue of Life Magazine. Geez, it is a matter of developement, and that will be put off until high oil prices are a sure thing, and not subject to manipulation by governments.


Larry, a carbohydrate is considerably different from a "hydrocarbon with an added water molecule".

First of all, the only way a water molecule could be a part of a hydrocarbon is if the newly formed molecule could exist as an anion, and anions are inherently unstable. In fact, synthesizing hydrocarbons from carbohydrates depends on this instability.

Take glucose, for example (one of the simplest of carbohydrates), C6H12O6. It is a form of cyclohexane, but each carbon atom is bonded to one H, one O, and two other Cs (instead of two Hs and two other Cs) . The O displaces the the 2nd H that was initially attached to the C atom (it doesn't actually work that way, but this is merely for illustrative purposes), with the displaced H now being attached to the O instead of the C. What this carbohydrate has is 6 hydroxyl groups. Exposing glucose to hydronium under the right conditions will cleave the hydroxyl groups away from the C ring, forming water and cyclohexene. If the cycolhexene is then exposed to enough H2, the Pi bonds will will be broken, leaving cyclohexane, a simple hydrocarbon.

Edit: damn board won't do the Pi symbol

[Larry_Oldtimer]

Larry, a carbohydrate is considerably different from a "hydrocarbon with an added water molecule".

First of all, the only way a water molecule could be a part of a hydrocarbon is if the newly formed molecule could exist as an anion, and anions are inherently unstable. In fact, synthesizing hydrocarbons from carbohydrates depends on this instability.

Take glucose, for example (one of the simplest of carbohydrates), C6H12O6. It is a form of cyclohexane, but each carbon atom is bonded to one H, one O, and two other Cs (instead of two Hs and two other Cs) . The O displaces the the 2nd H that was initially attached to the C atom (it doesn't actually work that way, but this is merely for illustrative purposes), with the displaced H now being attached to the O instead of the C. What this carbohydrate has is 6 hydroxyl groups. Exposing glucose to hydronium under the right conditions will cleave the hydroxyl groups away from the C ring, forming water and cyclohexene. If the cycolhexene is then exposed to enough H2, the Pi bonds will will be broken, leaving cyclohexane, a simple hydrocarbon.

Edit: damn board won't do the Pi symbol


Geez, it is a matter of where you place the odd H atom . . . a matter of notation. Take C2H5OH . . . Ethel Alcohol, a carbohydrate . . . atomically the same as C2H4 (methane, a hydrocarbon) + H2O (obviously, water)

Just take any carbohydrate source, say potatos or seaweed, dry it and put it in a pressure container, heat to about 700 degrees F under about 7,000 psi, and shake the container (in a device remarkably like a paint mixing machine). Let it then cool, open it up and pour out oil (fine crude grade) and water.

No need to argue, this was published in Life Magazine, February 3, 1941 issue. The research was conducted by Dr. Earmst Berl, of Carnagie Institute of Technology in Pittsburg, PA. H e proved it works with potatoes, sugar, molasses, seaweed, and cotton among others. He transformed all kinds of vegetable matter into excellent coking coals, asphalt, natural gas and petroleums that give the whole series of gasolines, kerosenes and lubrication oils.

Dr. Berl opined that the process wouldn't become economically feasible until sometime around the end of the 20th Century, as natural deposits of oil and gas would be plentiful and cheap until then. Ain't science wonderful? As long as the sun shines and vegetation grows, we will not run out of "oil".

[Larry_Oldtimer]

Just think about it . . . the dreaded kudzu might just become a cash crop. Damn, the folks down south would sure like that to happen.